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March warmth pushes water levels up slightly, but they remain below 2024 and long-term averages in key Michigan-connected lakes. Warmer-than-usual weather and recent precipitation are lifting Great Lakes water levels slightly, but key bodies like Lakes Michigan-Huron and Erie remain below last year’s highs.
Great Lakes Water Levels Show Slight Gains Amid Weather Shifts
Despite a wave of warm temperatures across the Great Lakes Basin in mid-March, the region’s water levels are still trailing 2024 benchmarks, according to the latest update from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District.
Temperatures across the Basin hovered between 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year. Parts of Michigan’s northern Lower Peninsula saw fresh snowfall, up to four inches, with blizzard-like conditions midweek. But even as the weather shifts again toward colder temperatures and more precipitation, lake levels show only modest month-to-month growth.
Lake Superior remained flat compared to February, while Lakes Michigan-Huron—which are hydrologically connected and crucial to Michigan’s economy and recreation—rose just two inches. Forecasts suggest they will gain another three inches by April 21.
Lakes Michigan-Huron Still Lag Behind 2024 and Long-Term Norms
Though Lakes Michigan-Huron are five inches above their chart datum—an important threshold for navigation—they are still nine inches below water levels recorded a year ago and seven inches under the March long-term average. These figures are significant for a state like Michigan, where lakefront real estate, shipping, and tourism are tightly bound to lake conditions.
Lower lake levels can expose more shoreline and create challenges for marinas and shipping routes, especially in spring before dredging operations begin. However, they may also bring short-term relief from coastal erosion, which has been an ongoing issue during recent high-water years.
Lake Erie, which forms part of Michigan’s southeastern border, is currently 11 inches below March 2024 levels but 2 inches above its long-term March average. Lake St. Clair, nestled between Michigan and Ontario, reflects a similar pattern—rising 4 inches since February but still under 2024’s mark.
Regulation and Outflows Impact Levels and Forecasts
Water levels are influenced not only by precipitation and temperature but also by outflow regulation. Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Marys River is below average for March, while outflows from Lake Michigan-Huron through the St. Clair River and Lake Erie through the Niagara River are near average. Lake Ontario, though seeing a predicted 4-inch rise, has had lower-than-average outflows from the St. Lawrence River, though that may shift due to regulatory measures.
These lake dynamics matter in a state like Michigan, where recreational boating is a $7.8 billion industry and commercial shipping moves over 90 million tons annually via the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway.
Long-Term Climate Patterns Continue to Shape Outlook
The March data from the Corps also draws comparisons to historical records. For Lakes Michigan-Huron, the current level is 42 inches below the March record high set in 2020 but 22 inches above the 1964 low.
According to Dr. Johnson, “What we’re seeing is variability that reflects both short-term weather anomalies and long-term climate signals. This year’s lower levels are not extreme, but the trendlines are shifting, and planning for variability is essential.”
Navigators and Residents Urged to Monitor Local Conditions
The Army Corps of Engineers stresses that lake-wide average levels may differ from local readings due to wind, barometric pressure, and other short-term factors. Mariners are encouraged to consult real-time charts and the National Ice Center for updated ice coverage, which still averages 9% across the lakes.
?Lower water levels in the Great Lakes have significant economic and operational impacts. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, from 1997 to 2000, reduced water levels forced ships to decrease their cargo tonnage by 5 to 8 percent, leading to increased shipping costs. Additionally, the International Joint Commission notes that low water levels negatively affect municipal users, as water intakes may be above the water surface or affected by warmer and poorer quality water. These challenges underscore the importance of monitoring and addressing water level fluctuations in the Great Lakes region.? (International Joint Commission)
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